Phnom Penh, Cambodia – A court issued arrest warrants for top Cambodian opposition politicians living abroad, as the exiled activists begin preparations to return to the country.
Sam Rainsy, founder of the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was among the politicians accused of incitement to commit a felony and plotting to commit treason. Warrants were also issued for CNRP vice-presidents Mu Sochua and Eng Chhay Eang as well as five others.
The CNRP was controversially dissolved in 2017 on accusations of trying to overthrow the Cambodian government, despite virtually no evidence to support such a claim. CNRP co-founder and then-president Kem Sokha was arrested for treason on similarly flimsy pretenses.
The pre-election banishment allowed the ruling Cambodian People’s Party to win an essentially uncontested election, garnering all 125 seats in the National Assembly and extending Prime Minister Hun Sen’s 33-year grip on power.
“Hun Sen is taking Cambodia to a really dark place,” Sochua said in a recent interview with Al Jazeera.
Sochua and others fled the country during the crackdown, while Rainsy has lived abroad to avoid politically tinged charges since 2015.
The political repression, which was accompanied by the dismantling of Cambodia’s free press, has been roundly condemned by Western powers. In response, the EU has begun the process of withdrawing its preferential trade agreement with Cambodia – the Everything But Arms (EBA) deal that allows Cambodia to export products other than weapons at discounted tariff rates. The US is also considering revoking a similar trade agreement.
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The Cambodian government’s attack on democracy coincided with a shift towards China. While Western powers criticise, the regional superpower continues to offer unconditional support to increasingly authoritarian Cambodia.
Sochua warned that Hun Sen is willing to sacrifice the welfare of millions and Cambodia’s sovereignty in order to preserve his own personal wealth and his grip on power.
Recently, Rainsy announced he would return to Cambodia, initially pledging to arrive by Khmer New Year in mid-April. He has since walked back that deadline, claiming there is no point in returning just to be arrested or killed.
‘Politically motivated’
Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division, said the warrants should be considered a preemptive attempt to ward of Rainsy and Sochua’s return.
“PM Hun Sen is trying to slam the door on these leading members of the CNRP ever being able to return to Cambodia,” Robertson said in an email to Al Jazeera, adding the entire “politically motivated” crackdown on the CNRP was based on fabricated accusations.
Robertson agreed that returning now would put their freedom and even their lives in jeopardy.
“The government is putting these opposition leaders on notice that if they enter Cambodia, they will certainly face immediate arrest, a long period of pre-trial detention, and then a kangaroo court trial where evidence is not necessary for a conviction,” Robertson continued, adding such a sentence could prove fatal given the dire conditions of Cambodia’s prisons.
Sochua, who is in charge of the planning committee for the return, still insists the CNRP leaders will eventually be back in Cambodia.
“The plan is not being taken off the shelf, we will move forward,” she said.
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Sochua said they won’t let legal threats intimidate them against returning, but added the details and logistics of their arrival were still being hammered out.
“We can be arrested, we can even be shot down on the tarmac, who knows,” she said.
The warrants come as the EU is preparing to send a team on a fact-finding mission to assess the human rights situation in Cambodia. While the process of withdrawing the EBA has already begun, the EU can halt the suspension if it believes the Cambodian government is showing signs of progress.
“These charges are the equivalent of PM Hun Sen throwing sand in the face of the European Union and its EBA negotiators due in the country next week,” Robertson said.
“Hun Sen is showing he’s solely interested in maintaining power at any cost, even if that means hurting the economy by this spiteful action that will make it harder to maintain EBA trade privileges for Cambodian exports.”
Chess match
European political scientist Astrid Noren-Nilsson also predicted all eight politicians would likely face arrest should they indeed return. She also said based on the current political climate, she doesn’t expect a significant reaction from the Cambodian people.
“It is highly unlikely that this would prompt significant protests, but it would nonetheless open up for quite complicated scenarios,” she said via email, explaining the outcome would be hard to predict.
Noren-Nilsson also claimed both sides are looking at the international situation strategically and playing “mind games” with each other.
She said the opposition leaders’ initial plan to return should be seen as an attempt to take advantage of the increased scrutiny on the Cambodian government during the EBA withdrawal process.
“The government is now responding that it will not cede ground – status quo will be maintained,” she said.
Sochua had another interpretation, saying Hun Sen is purposefully using political enemies as “bargaining chips” with the EU.
She expects the prime minister to offer concessions to the EU by releasing certain political prisoners and offering pardons, while refusing to make meaningful changes.
“Hun Sen is a chess player, however, we cannot allow Hun Sen to play chess with democracy,” she said.
