{"id":47682,"date":"2022-02-28T11:27:16","date_gmt":"2022-02-28T11:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=47682"},"modified":"2022-02-28T11:27:16","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T11:27:16","slug":"ukraines-fate-puts-a-big-question-mark-over-nuclear-disarmament-efforts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=47682","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s fate puts a big question mark over nuclear disarmament efforts"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nIRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan:\u00a0As Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth day, what is for certain is that the geopolitical repercussions will be felt far away from the European operational theater. Analysts say Ukraine\u2019s grim fate may well have long-term implications for future nuclear disarmament efforts, including in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

\nWhen the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine gained its independence. Along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, Ukraine inherited a huge arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers and, more crucially, nuclear warheads, which it gave up.<\/p>\n

\nThe government of former president Leonid Kravchuk agreed in 1994 to completely dismantle that arsenal, one of the largest in the world at the time, as part of the Budapest Memorandum, which included security assurances for protecting Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity and political independence in return.<\/p>\n

\nThe full title of that agreement was the \u201cMemorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine\u2019s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nDespite all this, Russian tanks are now rolling into Kyiv to topple Ukraine\u2019s democratically elected government, ostensibly for its pro-Western orientation. Ukraine, which aspires to be a member of both the EU and the NATO, is receiving insufficient support and assistance from Western countries to stop the Russian military juggernaut.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
A Russian military armored vehicle drives along a street in Armyansk, Crimea,\u00a0after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a military operation into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. (REUTERS)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nSome argue that former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi made a similar mistake when he surrendered his substantial stockpile of weapons of mass destruction to the West in 2003, only to be toppled by, and killed in, a popular armed uprising that was given decisive NATO air support less than a decade later.<\/p>\n

\nUkraine, however, could set a precedent altogether different from serial human rights-violating pariah states such as Gaddafi\u2019s Libya, Saddam Hussein\u2019s Iraq or North Korea. It is a democratic and genuinely pro-Western country.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nIf the West cannot guarantee Kyiv\u2019s security in return for furthering the campaign for nuclear disarmament, then why would unpopular, nondemocratic governments put their trust in similar security assurances in return for dismantling their stockpiles (or pledging to never develop such weapons) in the future?<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIn a general sense, the invasion of Ukraine does reinforce the utility of nuclear weapons in protecting states. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and was attacked, yet the far more vulnerable Baltic states are (for now, anyway) safe because of NATO\u2019s nuclear guarantee,\u201d Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cTake the Gaddafi precedent. Had he retained his nuclear program and completed it, such weapons could not have prevented a rebellion from erupting against him in 2011. But the stark truth is it could have prevented NATO support for the rebellion, and without external support, it might well have failed, and Gaddafi would have survived,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
The late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi delivers an address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on Sept. 23, 2009. (AFP file photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nShashank Joshi, defense editor at The Economist, also believes that \u201cthe violation of the Budapest Memorandum does show that such diplomatic agreements, and particularly negative security assurances \u2014 the promise that you won\u2019t attack someone \u2014 are difficult if not impossible to enforce over a period of decades.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThough Gaddafi did not receive such assurances explicitly, NATO\u2019s role in facilitating the collapse of his regime, which culminated in his murder, is also a precedent that would-be nuclear authoritarian states will keep in mind,\u201d Joshi told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\nIn return for surrendering his \u201cweapons of mass destruction\u201d stockpile, Gaddafi was promised better relations between Libya, then an impoverished pariah state, and the West, as well as the lifting of economic sanctions against his country. Nevertheless, by 2009 he seemed to have come to regret the decision, lamenting on a visit to Italy: \u201cWe had hoped Libya would be an example to other countries \u2026 but we have not been rewarded by the world.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIn Joshi\u2019s opinion, while such precedents \u201cprobably make it harder to secure the disarmament of North Korea, it\u2019s important to bear in mind that Pyongyang probably would not disarm even if it did have those guarantees.\u201d By all accounts, Kim Jong-un, and his father before him, leaders of arguably one of the most isolated and secretive countries on the planet today, took note of the Gaddafi episode.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (C) visits a drill for ballistic missile launch by the Korean People’s Army on July 21, 2016. (KCNA VIA KNS \/ AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nNow, the West\u2019s collective failure to match its words with action, in the case of a country as like-minded and globally integrated as Ukraine, could serve to further reduce the already unlikely prospect that Pyongyang would ever seriously consider nuclear disarmament in return for international guarantees and sanctions relief.<\/p>\n

\nThat said, could the Ukraine fiasco also impact the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the international community to revive the 2015 nuclear accord? Iran now has an estimated nuclear breakout time as short as five weeks, meaning it could build a bomb in that time frame if it decides to do so.<\/p>\n

\nIt is unclear if the undoubted failure of the Budapest Memorandum has further convinced some in Tehran that restoring the JCPOA is a futile endeavor. Orton, for one, is highly skeptical that the Ukraine crisis has, or will have, any significant bearing on Iran\u2019s decision making vis-a-vis its nuclear program.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami watching a launch of missiles during a drill last year. (AFP\/File)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\n\u201cThe invasion of Ukraine has only an indirect bearing on the Iran nuclear talks, really,\u201d he told Arab News. \u201cRussia and the clerical regime are strategic partners, so when Russia feels emboldened against a weak and ineffective West on the strength of its Ukraine conquest, it seemingly reinforces the argument for even more Iran-friendly terms for the nuclear deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nOrton added: \u201cBut it\u2019s not really a precedent or anything: Tehran\u2019s advance toward the bomb is its own thing, for its own reasons, with its own timeline.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAnalysts further say that it is important to note that if Iran ultimately does opt to develop nuclear weapons, it may not only use them to entrench the regime\u2019s power and deter external threats.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cMuch of the debate around Iran\u2019s nuclear program is centered on the question of whether Iran would develop nuclear weapons to use to coerce its neighbors into submitting to it, rather than in defense of Iran,\u201d Nicholas Heras, deputy director of the Human Security Unit at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nEither way, the regime in Tehran could conclude that developing nuclear weapons is worth the consequences and the risks.<\/p>\n

\nOrton says that even though there are \u201creal costs\u201d for states that \u201covertly cross the nuclear threshold,\u201d such as North Korea, some countries have concluded that those costs are worth paying.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIndia, Pakistan and Israel have had their status and security enhanced by nuclear weapons,\u201d he said: \u201cYou can run a global menagerie of Islamic radicals who kill thousands of Western troops, but you are shielded from the cost because of your nuclear coercive diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
Russia’s RS-24 Yars, a MIRV-equipped, thermonuclear weapon intercontinental ballistic missile, aredisplayed during a World War II victory celebration in Moscow. (Shutterstock photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nOrton summed up the argument this way: \u201cThe incentives we have set, unfortunately, are for states to gain nuclear weapons and hold on to them. Technical expertise, money, state intentions and vulnerability to US sanctions seem likely to be the main constraints on proliferation going forward, not UN-blessed diplomatic instruments.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIn much the same vein, Heras described nuclear weapons as \u201cthe most effective deterrent threat against invasion that any state could possess in the modern world.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cAll nuclear weapons-possessing states have clear national security strategies that permit the use of these weapons to defend themselves,\u201d he told Arab News. \u201cThis is a universal fact of statecraft in our modern world.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIn the final analysis, Heras said, the debate over nuclear weapons springs from the concern that the more states, or even nonstate actors, that possess them, the greater the likelihood is of such weapons being used in future conflicts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan:\u00a0As Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth day, what is for certain is that the geopolitical repercussions will be felt far away from the European operational theater. Analysts say Ukraine\u2019s grim fate may well have long-term implications for future nuclear disarmament efforts, including in the Middle East. When the Soviet Union collapsed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-spotlight_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47682\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}