{"id":45636,"date":"2021-06-20T04:22:47","date_gmt":"2021-06-20T04:22:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=45636"},"modified":"2021-06-20T04:22:47","modified_gmt":"2021-06-20T04:22:47","slug":"eu-representative-blames-lebanese-officials-for-countrys-ills","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=45636","title":{"rendered":"EU representative blames Lebanese officials for country\u2019s ills"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nMISSOURI, US\u00a0\/\u00a0IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan:\u00a0A popular Persian music video from several years back features a long line of sullen-looking people waiting to be served at a cafeteria. When their turn comes to choose, we see the grim-faced chef offer them the option of maggot-filled mystery meat or slime filled with flies.<\/p>\n

\nMany Iranian artists engage in such oblique attacks on the clerical ruling class since direct criticism of the basic parameters of the political system remains forbidden. The victory of ultraconservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi in Friday\u2019s presidential election highlighted Iranians\u2019 lack of choice in such matters more than ever.<\/p>\n

\nWhile it is not uncommon for voters in many countries to complain of lack of meaningful choice in elections, the Iranian case takes this phenomenon to new heights. The Guardian Council, an unelected body of clerics and jurists (three of whom were appointed by Raisi), vets would-be political candidates.<\/p>\n

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\nVoter turnout for Iran\u2019s presidential poll was the lowest in decades. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nBy many estimates, the council rejects more than 90 percent of applicants who go through the trouble of applying to run for political office. This year it rejected the candidacy of not only popular reformist candidates allied with outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, but also of populist hardliners as well.<\/p>\n

\nThe list of candidates forbidden to run in the election thus included current vice-president Eshaq Jahingiri, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani (both allied with Rouhani), and the rightwing populist former president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. These are former political leaders of Iran, among the few allowed to run in previous elections and whose support for the basic tenets of the Islamic Republic seems beyond doubt.<\/p>\n

\nYet the Guardian Council still deemed them too much of a threat and disqualified their candidacy (along with that of any women, who are all barred from running in such elections).\u00a0Unsurprisingly in such a climate, voter turnout appeared to have been the lowest in decades.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nHow to judge the legitimacy of the Iranian presidential election then?<\/p>\n

\n
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\nAn electoral campaign poster covers the facade of a building on Valiasr Square in Iran’s capital Tehran on June 19, 2021, a day after the presidential election. (AFP \/ Atta Kenare)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\n\u201cThat depends on how you define \u2018legitimate\u2019,\u201d Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told Arab News. \u201cThe Guardian Council has always vetted out any candidates seen as insufficiently loyal to the system, although never before had the definition of \u2018loyal\u2019 contracted as much as it seemed to have for this election.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nMuch less charitable than Slavin is Arash Azizi, author of \u201cThe Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran\u2019s Global Ambitions.\u201d \u201cRaisi won pretty much the same number of votes in 2021 as he had in 2017 as the losing candidate. But he won this time because the majority of people boycotted the elections,\u201d Azizi told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cEven if we believe the official figure, this is the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, and the first time a majority have not voted in a presidential election. Not to mention the nearly four million voters who spoiled their ballots.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAside from the lack of choice in political candidates, the most important decision-making posts in the country are not elected in any case.\u00a0The supreme leader \u2014 currently Ayatollah Khamenei, who took over from Ayatollah Khomeini in 1988 \u2014 is selected by the Guardian Council. The heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are likewise not elected but make many of the most important policy decisions in the country.<\/p>\n

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\nIran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\n\u201cIranians were frustrated at the lack of choice and pessimistic about the prospects for a better life under this regime,\u201d Slavin told Arab News. \u201cFor 25 years, they have turned out in large numbers in presidential elections in hopes of achieving peaceful evolutionary change.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cBut while Iranian society has progressed, the system has become more repressive and less representative. Also, not voting is a form of protest in a system that regards voting as a patriotic duty.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

\nIRAN\u2019S POLITICAL ECONOMY\u00a0IN NUMBERS\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n
\n
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\n40 percent<\/strong> – Iran\u2019s inflation rate in 2019.<\/p>\n

\n5 percent<\/strong> – Jump in poverty rate over past two years.<\/p>\n

\n3.7 million<\/strong> – People added to poverty roll in this period.<\/p>\n

\n83 million <\/strong>– Population of Iran in 2019.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\nIn the past, Khamenei and IRGC commanders preferred to allow limited choice in presidential elections and refrained from intervening too directly or obviously in the political process.<\/p>\n

\nThey would use the very restricted electoral system to gauge the popular mood, try and gain some legitimacy by claiming a democratic mandate, and sit back to see what political cards various elites in Iranian society would try to brandish.<\/p>\n

\nOnly when he perceived Iran to be veering too far off course would Khamenei step in publicly to make a correction.<\/p>\n

\nBehind the scenes, of course, such unelected leaders played an active role in nearly everything, from economic policy and directives regarding executions of political prisoners to the strategy of Iran\u2019s nuclear negotiations and other matters such as covert operations abroad and funding of various Iranian proxy forces in the region.<\/p>\n

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\nRising poverty, growing unrest and an economy in crisis have rattled the Tehran regime. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nAn economy in crisis and a growing number of popular protests in recent years seem to have rattled the regime, however. Under such conditions, the real leadership fears allowing Iranians even a semblance of choice in this year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

\nRaisi\u2019s appointment to the presidency therefore probably represents a message to the Iranian people most of all. A protege of Khamenei, Raisi was responsible for mass executions of tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents during the past three decades. He headed \u201cdeath committees\u201d in 1988 that buried slain political prisoners in mass graves.<\/p>\n

\nAccording to the Center for Human Rights in Iran, at that time Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was then the heir apparent to Ayatollah Khomeini, even condemned the death committees, saying: \u201cI believe this is the greatest crime committed in the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution and history will condemn us for it \u2026 . History will write you down as criminals.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\nIranian President Hassan Rouhani faced harsh criticism from conservatives today over a poorly implemented scheme to distribute food to low-income families in the sanctions-hit Islamic republic.(AFP file photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nEven today, Iran stands second only to China \u2014 a much larger country \u2014 in the number of executions it carries out every year. These are carried out after closed-door kangaroo trials in which defendants are not allowed to even see the evidence against them or confront their accusers, with a disproportionate number of accused coming from ethnic and religious minorities in Iran. Iranian Kurds make up roughly half of those executed, although they constitute less than half of Iran\u2019s population.<\/p>\n

\nRaisi takes up the post of president after serving as chief of the judiciary that oversaw this system and its mass executions of dissidents. Before becoming chief justice in 2019, he served as attorney general (2014\u20132016), deputy chief justice (2004\u20132014), and prosecutor and deputy prosecutor of Tehran in the 1980s and 1990s.<\/p>\n

\nHe is the first Iranian official to enter the presidency while already under US and European sanctions for his past involvement in human rights abuses.<\/p>\n

\nThe message to the Iranian people would therefore seem quite clear: You must behave and stay in line or else.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cKhamenei and the clerical establishment have long made a conscious decision to drive out all political competition. The reformists were drowned in blood once the 2009 Iranian Green movement was crushed, with many of its leaders sent to jail for years and its main political parties banned,\u201d Azizi told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe centrist wing of the regime, represented by Rouhani, was also subsequently pushed out of major positions of power. The pro-Khamenei conservatives now control the iudiciary, the parliament and the presidency. The latter two became possible only after all major electoral rivals were thrown out by the Guardian Council.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\nHassan Rouhani’s moderate leadership was reportedly sidelined in conducting foreign policy by the warmongering Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). (AFP file photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nComparing the present situation to the abolition in 1975 of the multi-party system by the shah of Iran, Azizi said: \u201cThis is\u00a0 very much the Islamic Republic\u2019s 1975 one-party state moment as some historians have pointed out. The regime might come to regret the day it turned itself into an ever more monolithic entity.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nLooking to the future, the Atlantic Council\u2019s Slavin says a more pertinent question now than the presidential election\u2019s legitimacy is whether the Raisi administration can improve life for ordinary Iranians as \u201cthat will be the determinant of its legacy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIranians may hope to see a slightly better economy if Tehran comes back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal and sanctions are lifted again,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cBut much depends on the competence or lack thereof of Raisi\u2019s team and the appetite or lack thereof of foreign companies to invest in Iran. I would expect repression of dissent to continue and even accelerate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAzizi believes Raisi\u2019s election will not lead to quick changes in people\u2019s lives or a sharp turn in policies. \u201cHe will tread carefully as his main goal is to prepare for the day when Khamenei\u2019s death brings a succession crisis and he can be in line to become the supreme leader,\u201d he told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cInterestingly enough, Rouhani\u2019s chief of staff Mahmod Vaezi recently speculated that people\u2019s lives might improve under Raisi since there will be dealings with the West, possibly even a deal before Raisi takes office, which should take some pressure off the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThat being said, what might Raisi\u2019s elevation to the presidency mean for Iran\u2019s relations with other countries?<\/p>\n

\nCompared with the more affable and moderate Rouhani, Raisi seems less likely, able or willing to lead an Iranian charm offensive abroad. The style of Iranian diplomacy may therefore change a bit, but the substance or Iranian policy will likely differ little from that of the previous administration.<\/p>\n

\nRouhani was not the one making the most important Iranian foreign policy choices in any case. He was, along with his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, just the messenger.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIran\u2019s policy in the Arab world was neither made nor implemented by the Rouhani administration, so a change in presidency won\u2019t bring an immediate change on this count,\u201d Azizi told Arab News. \u201cBut the IRGC will find more unrestricted access to state structures it doesn\u2019t already control and will have a freer hand in regional adventures.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\nWith an ultraconservative sitting as president, the IRGC will have a freer hand in regional troublemaking adventures, critics warn. (Iranian Army Office photo via AFP)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\nSlavin takes a more nuanced view of Iranian ambitions under Raisi\u2019s watch. \u201cI see him as risk averse in foreign affairs in part because he hopes to succeed Khamenei,\u201d she told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cI think he will focus on stabilizing the economy and try to reduce tensions with the neighbors. However, he is not in charge of relations with the various militia groups. That will remain within the purview of the Quds Force.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nTellingly, Raisi has made statements in the past indicating his ready willingness to accept international sanctions on Iran. He views such sanctions as an opportunity for Iran to further develop its own independent, \u201cresistance\u201d economy.<\/p>\n

\nFor ultraconservatives like him, too deep an integration with the world economy risks cultural and political perversion of Iran, so anything short of an American military invasion may be perfectly fine for Raisi and his mentor, Khamenei.<\/p>\n

\nThe Biden administration, which remains very much interested in resuming the nuclear accord, may thus find it difficult to negotiate with someone who does not seem to mind sanctions and a certain amount of isolation.<\/p>\n

\nHowever, Azizi thinks the regime will try to seal a deal to get Washington to rejoin the nuclear accord before Raisi takes office in August. \u201cRaisi will thus inherit this deal and maintain it,\u201d he said, although some IRGC elements will be pushing him to permit \u201cmore adventurous stuff in the region\u201d and reject Gulf states\u2019 reconciliation and talks offers.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cHow amenable he is to such pressure is an open question,\u201d Azizi told Arab News.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MISSOURI, US\u00a0\/\u00a0IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan:\u00a0A popular Persian music video from several years back features a long line of sullen-looking people waiting to be served at a cafeteria. When their turn comes to choose, we see the grim-faced chef offer them the option of maggot-filled mystery meat or slime filled with flies. Many Iranian artists engage in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-spotlight_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45636\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}