{"id":45495,"date":"2021-05-27T12:22:30","date_gmt":"2021-05-27T12:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=45495"},"modified":"2021-05-27T12:22:30","modified_gmt":"2021-05-27T12:22:30","slug":"emir-invites-el-sisi-to-visit-qatar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=45495","title":{"rendered":"Emir invites El-Sisi to visit Qatar"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nWASHINGTON, DC: The ongoing parley in Vienna between Iran and five signatories of the 2015 nuclear accord has begun to look like the proverbial game of chicken. The hawk \u2014 Tehran \u2014 has no compelling reason to yield to demands that it abide by the limits set by the deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It is playing for time while the dove wants to avoid the humiliation of looking like a chicken for as long as possible.<\/p>\n

But Tehran also runs the risk of overplaying its hand and ending up with nothing to show for its single-minded pursuit of getting the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration removed, analysts say.<\/p>\n

Thus, it may make sense for Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to voice his opposition to further renewal of the deal allowing inspection of Iran\u2019s nuclear sites, but there is no proof so far that such bargaining tactics are working.<\/p>\n

That said, Tehran must be pleased to hear the warning just sounded by Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that Iran\u2019s uranium enrichment program is \u201cvery concerning\u201d as the radioactive metal used to power nuclear reactors is being processed to purity levels that \u201conly countries making bombs are reaching.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIran often plays hardball in negotiations, and I suspect that it\u2019s testing the limits to see what it can get away with,\u201d Matt Kroenig, a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\"\"\u201cIn the end, however, I suspect we\u2019ll see a return to the nuclear deal with the terms as formulated in 2015. Iran needs the sanctions relief, and the Biden administration wants (what it will portray back home as) an early diplomatic victory.\u201d<\/p>\n

But some experts fear that a return to the JCPOA \u2014 from which the US unilaterally pulled out in May 2019 \u2014 could end up offering Iran an eventual pathway toward developing nuclear weapons.\u00a0Additionally, they say, if Iran is\u00a0allowed to continue to violate IAEA safeguards, a dangerous precedent would be set.<\/p>\n

\u201cTehran could be overplaying its hand regarding an issue that Washington and its European allies view as separate from the JCPOA \u2014 the IAEA\u2019s ongoing safeguards investigation,\u201d Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran has extorted the IAEA in three key ways since February. First, Tehran forced the agency into a terrible position of negotiating a bridge monitoring agreement, something it should never do with any state.<\/p>\n

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\nIran\u2019s hardline stance on IAEA inspections have been accompanied by continuous collaboration with regional militant groups, say experts. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n\u201cAs members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, states sign up to an IAEA comprehensive safeguards agreement and can add an additional protocol, but they don\u2019t get to pick and choose which elements of those agreements they\u2019ll comply with. By letting Iran do this, the IAEA set a very dangerous precedent for other proliferant states.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of the JCPOA\u2019s more controversial conditions was to halt any further public revelations and inspections of Iran\u2019s military research and tests related to nuclear weapons. Six years later, there is a sense that the revelations by a 2018 Israeli spy agency raid \u2014 which yielded tons of classified Iranian documents detailing various past covert nuclear weapons work \u2014 should prompt a comprehensive IAEA investigation into the military dimensions of Tehran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a fundamental incompatibility with how the JCPOA was used from 2015 to 2018 to shelve the IAEA\u2019s investigation, and the fact that new information about Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons activities has since come to light,\u201d Stricker said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis underscores that the IAEA can\u2019t perfunctorily close an open safeguards investigation. It must first methodically determine whether Iran\u2019s nuclear program has military dimensions and seek to ensure any such activities have ended.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cFrom 2002 until 2015, the IAEA investigated the possible military dimensions to Iran\u2019s nuclear program. However, the JCPOA and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 pushed the IAEA into another devastating compromise: Closing its investigation and issuing an incomplete, final report.\u201d
\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\nOne of the JCPOA\u2019s more controversial conditions was to halt any further public revelations and inspections of Iran\u2019s military research and tests related to nuclear weapons. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nJason Brodsky, a Middle East analyst and senior editor at Iran International, says Tehran has yet to be held accountable by the P4+1 \u2014 the UK, France, Russia and China plus Germany \u2014 for its uranium-enrichment escalation and stockpiling because of their determination to preserve the JCPOA, so it may have calculated that resistance will produce even more concessions.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s worth noting that the international community merely issued strongly worded demarches while continuing to negotiate following Iran\u2019s announcement that it was enriching uranium up to 60 percent in April,\u201d he told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, if Iran adopts such a stance on the IAEA monitoring agreement, it risks further isolating itself.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the general consensus of analysts is that Tehran\u2019s hard line is aimed at extracting concessions from the US and the remaining JCPOA signatories while sacrificing little in return, an unfolding power struggle in the run-up to Iran\u2019s presidential elections in June may also be a contributing factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cGranted, it\u2019s the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who makes the final decision on such matters, but the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) does have a role to play. And the SNSC\u2019s internal dynamics have changed since the original nuclear deal was signed in 2015,\u201d Brodsky said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Hassan Rouhani faces competition from Ghalibaf and Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi, both of whom joined the SNSC after the JCPOA came into being. What has further complicated matters is Raisi\u2019s decision to run for president. This is in part why we see the mixed messages from Tehran over the IAEA monitoring agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n

Advocacy groups opposed to the 2015 nuclear accord have also warned that a new deal would be incomplete if it does not address Iran\u2019s links with a number of designated terror groups and its hosting of Al-Qaeda leaders.
\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\nSome experts fear that a return to the JCPOA could end up offering Iran an eventual pathway toward developing nuclear weapons. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nBryan E. Leib, executive director of Iranian Americans for Liberty, is blunt in his assessment of the Vienna negotiations. \u201cThe Biden administration is playing a dangerous game with the world\u2019s most notorious state sponsor of terrorism that ultimately puts American allies and American troops in the region in harm\u2019s way against the regime\u2019s aggression,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Leib\u2019s concerns are shared by many former Trump administration officials who enforced the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign that revived and expanded sanctions on Iran\u2019s nuclear research and development network, and on terror-linked individuals and organizations. Their worry is that Washington\u2019s negotiation strategy would not only leave the US less secure but endanger the Middle East as well.<\/p>\n

They argue that Iran\u2019s hardline stance on IAEA inspections, its push for sanctions relief and its ramping up of its nuclear activity have been accompanied by continuous collaboration with regional militant groups.<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause of its (the Biden administration\u2019s) eagerness to throw away the hard-won leverage and make unprecedented concessions to the Iranian regime, I do think Iran feels it holds all the cards when it comes to the nuclear negotiations,\u201d Simone Ledeen, a former Trump Pentagon official, told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, in early May an unnamed senior administration official told reporters that \u2018success or failure now depends on Iran.\u2019 It\u2019s the most stark and troubling indication that the US administration remains untroubled by the many signals that Iran will make no concessions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nLedeen\u2019s opinion is seconded by Len Khodorkovsky, a former senior State Department official, who said: \u201cThe Biden administration\u2019s astonishing generosity in surrendering its leverage in Vienna has undoubtedly motivated the Iranian regime to push the envelope. The big concern is that the Biden administration, like the Obama administration, is willing to sacrifice everything at the altar of a deal, even a bad deal that harms US national security and that of our regional allies.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the final analysis, Tehran is still no closer to achieving its goal of getting President Joe Biden to find a way back into the JCPOA than when he officially entered the White House in January. Indeed, at its current stated pace of uranium enrichment, Iran could very well end up with the wherewithal for exploding a nuclear device, but not the sanctions relief it desperately craves.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, as IAEA chief Grossi diplomatically pointed out in the interview he gave to Financial Times, \u201cwith a program with the degree of ambition, sophistication that Iran has, you need a very robust, very strong verification system \u2026 otherwise it becomes very fragile.\u201d<\/p>\n

Preventing Iran from gaining the capability to build nuclear weapons will require, at a minimum, stringent measures backed by strict monitoring of all of Iran\u2019s underground facilities, including the ones it has presumably not disclosed.<\/p>\n

Twitter: @OS26<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON, DC: The ongoing parley in Vienna between Iran and five signatories of the 2015 nuclear accord has begun to look like the proverbial game of chicken. The hawk \u2014 Tehran \u2014 has no compelling reason to yield to demands that it abide by the limits set by the deal, also known as the Joint…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-spotlight_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}