{"id":40072,"date":"2019-07-11T23:22:50","date_gmt":"2019-07-11T23:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=40072"},"modified":"2019-07-11T23:22:50","modified_gmt":"2019-07-11T23:22:50","slug":"assad-hits-a-wall-in-syrian-war-as-front-lines-harden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=40072","title":{"rendered":"Assad hits a wall in Syrian war as front lines harden"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nBEIRUT\/AMMAN:\u00a0The Syrian regime\u2019s assault in the northwest has been met with a painful opposition counterpunch that underlines Turkish resolve to keep the area out of his hands and shows why he will struggle to take back more of Syria by force.<\/p>\n

\nMore than two months of Russian-backed operations in and around Idlib province have yielded little or nothing for Bashar Assad\u2019s side. It marks a rare case of a military campaign that has not gone his way since Russia intervened in 2015.<\/p>\n

\nWhile resisting regime attacks, the insurgents have managed to carve out small advances of their own, drawing on ample stocks of guided antitank missiles that opposition and diplomatic sources say have been supplied by Turkey.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey\u2019re even targeting personnel with these missiles … it means they are comfortably supplied,\u201d an opposition source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing opposition military capabilities. Turkey\u2019s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on reports that Ankara has stepped supplies of arms to opposition fighters.<\/p>\n

\nWith Turkey committed to the opposition, the battle for the northwest stands in stark contrast to a campaign in the southwest a year ago, when Western and Arab states stood by as Assad and his Russian- and Iranian-backed allies took the area.<\/p>\n

\nDespite Russian backing in the latest fighting, questions have arisen over whether Assad and his allies are entirely on the same page when it comes to the northwest, where Turkey has deployed forces in agreement with Russia and Iran.<\/p>\n

\nMoscow has appeared keen to preserve its ties with Ankara even as its air force bombs in support of Assad: Turkey says Russia has intervened to stop attacks on Turkish forces from Syrian regime-held territory.<\/p>\n

\nAnd this time there has been no sign of a major role for Iranian backed Shiite forces that have helped Assad to victories in parts of Syria that are of greater interest to Iran, including territory near Iraq, Lebanon and Israel.<\/p>\n

\nThe capture of the southwest a year ago remains Assad\u2019s last big gain. The prospects of further advances have been obstructed not only by Turkish interests in the northwest but also the presence of US forces in the east and northeast.<\/p>\n

\nAmerican troops are still supporting Kurdish-led fighters following a reversal of President Donald Trump\u2019s decision last December to pull them all out.<\/p>\n

\nAfter more than eight years of war, this leaves Syria carved up into areas of US, Russian, Turkish and Iranian influence that seem unlikely to be stitched back together any time soon.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe could see the front lines harden and remain like that for some time, where either the appetite or capability to fight through them is not there on the part of the regime or its allies,\u201d said a Western diplomat speaking anonymously in order to offer a candid assessment.<\/p>\n

\n\u2018Bone-breaking battle\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nThe Idlib area is dominated by Tahrir Al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front. Proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN Security Council, the group has set aside past conflict with Turkish backed opposition to defend the northwest.<\/p>\n

\nCol. Mustafa Bakour, a commander in the Jaish Al-Izza fighter group, said coordination among opposition was a major factor in foiling regime attacks.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cI expect the battles to continue for a time because it has become a bone-breaking battle,\u201d he said in written answers to questions from Reuters.<\/p>\n

\nThe regime campaign of airstrikes and barrel bombing that began in late April was followed by the capture of around 20 villages. This led to an opposition counterattack in early June that seized ground the regime has been unable to recover.<\/p>\n

\nThe Syrian regime has described its operations as a response to militant violations of cease-fire agreements.<\/p>\n

\nRussia says action was needed to stop attacks from being launched from Idlib, including drone strikes on its nearby air base. President Vladimir Putin said in April a full-scale operation in Idlib was impractical for now.<\/p>\n

\nThough the regime has not declared the goals of the campaign, opposition sources believe it was to capture two highways that pass through opposition-held territory.<\/p>\n

\nSome 300,000 people fleeing bombardment have moved toward the Turkish border since April, prompting the UN to warn that Idlib was on the brink of a \u201chumanitarian nightmare.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nFor Ankara, the Syrian opposition\u2019s last major state sponsor, preventing another major influx of Syrian refugees is of paramount importance: Turkey already hosts 3.6 million of them.<\/p>\n

\nWhile accusing the Syrian regime of targeting civilians and its military observation posts in the Idlib area, Turkey has stopped short of blaming Russia, instead saying it would continue to cooperate with Moscow over the northwest.<\/p>\n

\nThe Turkish Foreign Ministry, in a written response to questions from Reuters, also said \u201cnecessary messages have been sent to Russian officials to end the attacks on our observation points and civilians\u201d in the Idlib area.<\/p>\n

\nHundreds of civilians have been killed, as have many fighters on both sides, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.<\/p>\n

\nObservatory Director Rami Abdulrahman described the operation as \u201ca failure on all levels\u201d for Russia and Damascus.<\/p>\n

\nA Russian private military contractor who was based near Idlib province told Reuters that opposition fighters there are far more professional and motivated than their adversary. Pro-regime forces cannot win the battle for Idlib unless Moscow helps them on the ground, he said.<\/p>\n

\nA second Western diplomat said the regime had suffered heavy casualties for minimal gains, which was \u201cdeeply embarrassing.\u201d \u201cTurkey is trying to tell them \u2018you cannot take this militarily. You have to negotiate\u2019,\u201d the diplomat said.<\/p>\n

\nA regional source close to Damascus described the escalation since April as a limited confrontation, saying Russia\u2019s ties with Turkey were the main brake on any full-scale assault to take the entire northwest.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cOf course the regime has the desire to recover Idlib by force, but … without the Russians it can\u2019t, because there are many militants and the Russians are completely committed to the Turks,\u201d the source said. \u201cIt is expected that the situation in Idlib will stay as it is for a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BEIRUT\/AMMAN:\u00a0The Syrian regime\u2019s assault in the northwest has been met with a painful opposition counterpunch that underlines Turkish resolve to keep the area out of his hands and shows why he will struggle to take back more of Syria by force. More than two months of Russian-backed operations in and around Idlib province have yielded…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":40073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/40073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}