{"id":27979,"date":"2019-01-04T03:23:50","date_gmt":"2019-01-04T03:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27979"},"modified":"2019-01-04T03:23:50","modified_gmt":"2019-01-04T03:23:50","slug":"what-next-for-syrias-kurds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27979","title":{"rendered":"What next for Syria\u2019s Kurds?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nBEIRUT: Syria\u2019s Kurds have established an autonomous region during seven years of civil war, but the abrupt decision by their US ally to withdraw has thrown their political future into doubt.<\/p>\n

\nKurdish-led forces control a large swathe of the country\u2019s north and northeast, some of it seized from Daesh at the cost of heavy losses with backing from the US-led coalition.<\/p>\n

\nA US withdrawal could leave them exposed on two fronts, both to an attack by neighboring Turkey and its Syrian proxies, and to a return of Damascus government institutions.<\/p>\n

\nSyria\u2019s Kurdish minority have largely stayed out of the civil war, instead forging autonomy in a large swathe of the north and northeast, including along the Turkish border.<\/p>\n

\nThe fight against Daesh has allowed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to expand that territory to include the Euphrates Valley city of Raqqa, as well as key oil and gas fields in the eastern province of Deir Ez-Zor.<\/p>\n

\nOn Dec. 19, President Donald Trump took many even among his own supporters by surprise with the announcement of a full US troop withdrawal from Syria.<\/p>\n

\nThat prompted the Kurds to seek a new alliance with the Damascus regime to protect them from a long-threatened attack by neighboring Turkey.<\/p>\n

\nAnkara views the Kurdish fighters of the SDF as \u201cterrorists,\u201d in cahoots with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been fighting Turkish troops since 1984.<\/p>\n

\nAlthough unlikely without prior agreements between regime ally Russia and rebel backer Turkey, analysts foresee a possible carving up of the northeast between the different sides.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThere will be a division of territory between the SDF, the Turks, and the Syrian army,\u201d political geographer and Syria expert Fabrice Balanche predicted.<\/p>\n

\nToday, the regime holds almost two-thirds of Syria after victories against militants and other rebels, and has pledged to eventually return the northeast to government control.<\/p>\n

\nLast week, Damascus deployed troops in the northern countryside to stem off any Turkish-led attack on the flashpoint SDF-held city of Manbij.<\/p>\n

\nOn Wednesday, the army said 400 Kurdish fighters had retreated from areas around the Arab-majority city. But an Arab contingent of the SDF remains in control, and US forces are also present as they have not yet withdrawn.<\/p>\n

\nOn Monday, pro-government newspaper Al-Watan cited an Arab diplomat in Moscow as saying the northern city would revert to \u201cfull state supervision.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThe source also said Turkey, Russia and fellow regime ally Iran would discuss \u201ca return of state institutions\u201d to areas further east, beyond the Euphrates River, at a meeting expected at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

\nBalanche said the regime would eventually resume full control of the main northeastern cities of Hasakah and Qamishli.<\/p>\n

\nIt would also retake the Arab-majority city of Raqqa, as well as the oil fields of Deir Ezzor.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe Syrian Army will… rapidly seize the Omar oil fields \u2014 two-thirds of Syrian production,\u201d Balanche said.<\/p>\n

\nTurkey has led two previous incursions across the border, the most recent of which saw its Syrian proxies seize the northwestern enclave of Afrin from Kurdish forces last year.<\/p>\n

\nBut analyst Heiko Wimmen said Ankara would first have to seek consent from Moscow before any third offensive, especially to use its air force.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIf it does happen however, Turkey will try to control the border strip,\u201d said Wimmen, of the Brussels-based think tank, the International Crisis Group.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWhat they are aiming for is a buffer zone along the border,\u201d he said, stressing that the mission would be fraught with difficulty.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIt is not clear that they are immediately prepared to take over and control a large area with a partly hostile population,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\nBalanche predicted Turkish troops and their allies would eventually push 20-40 km into Syria.<\/p>\n

\nAfter decades of marginalization, since the civil war erupted in 2011 Syria\u2019s Kurds have set up their own institutions in areas they control.<\/p>\n

\nAfter government forces pulled out of Kurdish-majority areas in 2012, the Kurds set up their own administrations and implemented longstanding demands such as Kurdish-medium education.<\/p>\n

\nBut as loyalist forces gained ground last year and Damascus rejected Kurdish self-rule, the Kurds entered talks with the regime to seek some form of decentralization.<\/p>\n

\nWith the Kurds now set to see their US ally withdraw from Syria, Wimmen said the Kurds were \u201ccertain to lose a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe question is whether the loss will be total or whether some of it can be salvaged… through a deal with the regime, guaranteed by Russia,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\nBut \u201cgiven the track record of the regime and its negotiation positions so far… there is little reason for optimism.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BEIRUT: Syria\u2019s Kurds have established an autonomous region during seven years of civil war, but the abrupt decision by their US ally to withdraw has thrown their political future into doubt. Kurdish-led forces control a large swathe of the country\u2019s north and northeast, some of it seized from Daesh at the cost of heavy losses…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":27980,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27979\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}