{"id":27423,"date":"2018-12-30T11:22:10","date_gmt":"2018-12-30T11:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27423"},"modified":"2018-12-30T11:22:10","modified_gmt":"2018-12-30T11:22:10","slug":"after-year-of-political-deadlock-financial-woes-what-next-for-lebanon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27423","title":{"rendered":"After year of political deadlock, financial woes, what next for Lebanon?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nBEIRUT:\u00a0Over the course of 2018, Saudi Arabia opened cinemas for the first time in 35 years, Apple Inc. reached $1 trillion on the stock market, and the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nLebanon, on the other hand, continues to stumble around after a year that started out hopeful, only to end in frustration, exhaustion and confusion for its citizens.<\/p>\n

\nThe biggest event of the year was the parliamentary election, the first in nine years, which saw many familiar faces and names line up their candidacy, but also a rise in civil society movements that have challenged the status quo.<\/p>\n

\nVoter turnout was just under 50 percent, with little change apart from a single parliamentary seat for civil society groups.<\/p>\n

\nHezbollah and its allies won more than half the seats, a result that the Iran-backed militant group\u2019s leader Hassan Nasrallah called a \u201cpolitical and moral victory.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe Future Movement of Prime Minister Saad Hariri lost a third of its seats, the outcome of years of erosion to his March 14 coalition.<\/p>\n

\nNow we reach the seventh month since he was handed the duty to form a government after the election, with the promise of a \u201choliday gift to the Lebanese people\u201d in its formation.<\/p>\n

\nEfforts to form the government have been obstructed by conflicting demands for Cabinet seats that must be handed out in line with a sectarian power-sharing system.<\/p>\n

\nPolitical chess<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nTwo main issues sit at the core of government-formation efforts: Syria and the case of six Sunni MPs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAs the Syrian conflict heads to its endgame, some Lebanese politicians are keen to normalize relations with Syrian President Bashar Assad, a move Hariri is not exactly fond of.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIt is impossible that I visit Syria, not now and not in the future\u2026 and if Lebanon\u2019s interest requires so, then you could find someone else\u201d he said in August.<\/p>\n

\nAs for the second issue, six pro-Hezbollah Sunni MPs were elected this year at the expense of Hariri\u2019s tight grasp on the sect\u2019s seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe six demand representation in the Cabinet due to the electoral gains of Hezbollah and its allies. This would mean Hariri ceding his power as the Sunnis\u2019 main leader.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAfter deliberation and mediation by Lebanese President Michel Aoun, the six have agreed to give the name of a single MP to represent all their interests.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nA name was given and things appeared to be on the right track, with Hariri saying the government-formation announcement would come \u201cwithin a few hours.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nCitizens eased up ahead of the Christmas holidays, before the \u201cfew hours\u201d turned into days after the six decided to reject the name that was nominated for their representation.<\/p>\n

\nLebanese rushed to Beirut\u2019s Martyrs\u2019 Square on Dec. 23, donning yellow vests with a cedar tree emblem, in protest at the continued delay.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cI came because I\u2019m fed up,\u201d protester Youssef Al-Amine told Arab News, \u201cI\u2019m below the legal voting age, but I came because I didn\u2019t want to just sit at home doing nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAs the days go by, Lebanon is looking increasingly likely to enter 2019 without a formed government, as Hariri and Hezbollah continue to squabble over seats and Sunni representation in the Cabinet.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nEconomic woes<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nEarly in the third quarter of 2018, there were reports that Lebanon was teetering on the brink of economic collapse, with the lack of government formation accelerating its imminence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nEarlier this year, at a Paris conference dubbed CEDRE, Lebanon was granted up to $11 billion in aid from Western countries to slow down or halt the impending economic crisis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nBut the lack of government means the funds are inaccessible, leading France and other Western countries to issue statements of caution.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe lack of a government in Lebanon means running the risk that this dynamic in the international community is lost,\u201d said France\u2019s ambassador to Lebanon, Brouno Foucher.<\/p>\n

\nThis summer, the global ratings agency Moody\u2019s gave Lebanon\u2019s economy a \u201clow (+)\u201d grading due to \u201cthe deterioration in the regional economic and political environment.\u201d This, and the fear of a real estate collapse, have placed citizens on edge.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cSince 2011, the lack of investment in infrastructure and the absence of economic reforms have weakened the country\u2019s competitiveness, and would likely prevent Lebanon from returning to previously high real GDP (gross domestic product) growth, even if political risks were to subside,\u201d the Moody\u2019s report said.<\/p>\n

\nEconomic growth plummeted from a solid 9 percent since the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011, and has hovered around 1.1 percent for the past three years. Public debt stands at $82 billion, equivalent to 150 percent of GDP.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe\u2019re passing through challenging times,\u201d former Lebanese Finance Minister Raya Al-Hassan told Arab News.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe\u2019re in a huge slump. All the economic indicators point to a downturn in economic activity. All the real economy sectors are suffering and witnessing a downturn.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nRunning in parallel with the economic slump is the country\u2019s weak demand for real estate, with megaprojects being halted.<\/p>\n

\nA slump in oil prices from 2014 compounded this slowdown, leaving thousands of apartments unsold across Beirut, and forcing some developers to freeze construction sites.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cSome 3,600 unsold apartments exist today in Beirut alone,\u201d said Guillaume Boudisseau, an expert at the Ramco real estate consultancy firm.<\/p>\n

\nRays of light<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nWhile Lebanon\u2019s economic and political woes have placed considerable strain on its citizens, the cultural sector thrived this year.<\/p>\n

\nLebanon was represented at the Academy Awards for the first time with Ziad Doueiri\u2019s \u201cThe Insult,\u201d which highlighted the sectarian strife still embedded in the country since its 14-year civil war ended in 1990.<\/p>\n

\nNadine Labaki\u2019s \u201cCapernaum\u201d is also in the running to represent the country at the 91st Academy Awards, after receiving the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, and being the first Lebanese film nominated for an Emmy Award for Best Foreign Film.<\/p>\n

\nThe country announced that it will reopen its national library to the public 40 years since it shut its doors during the civil war. The Beirut Museum of Art will open in 2023.<\/p>\n

\nAs 2018 comes to a close, Lebanon\u2019s future \u2014 as always \u2014 is part of a circus act, with the main show being Hariri juggling the country\u2019s economy, politics and citizens. It is only a matter of time before one \u2014 or all \u2014 of them come falling down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BEIRUT:\u00a0Over the course of 2018, Saudi Arabia opened cinemas for the first time in 35 years, Apple Inc. reached $1 trillion on the stock market, and the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0 Lebanon, on the other hand, continues to stumble around after a year that started out hopeful, only to end in frustration,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":27424,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27423\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27424"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}