{"id":27350,"date":"2018-12-29T16:22:49","date_gmt":"2018-12-29T16:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27350"},"modified":"2018-12-29T16:22:49","modified_gmt":"2018-12-29T16:22:49","slug":"2018-the-year-iraqs-political-battle-lines-were-redrawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=27350","title":{"rendered":"2018 – the year Iraq\u2019s political battle lines were redrawn"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nBAGHDAD: Thousands of followers of Muqtada Al-Sadr gathered on a recent Friday evening in Tahrir Square, central Baghdad, to show their support.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThey were there to praise the Shiite cleric, who has become a key power broker since May elections, for the way he has gone about selecting his preferred candidates for the ministries responsible for the country\u2019s security.<\/p>\n

\nMen and women waved Iraqi flags and banners reading \u201cour neighbors are our friends, not our masters,\u201d a reference to Iran\u2019s political and military interference in\u00a0Iraq.<\/p>\n

\nMost recently this has been through Tehran\u2019s efforts to impose its own candidates to run the ministries of interior and defense.<\/p>\n

\nAt the same time, hundreds of miles to the south, another demonstration took place in Basra. Crowds gathered to protest against attempts by Shiite political parties to elect a new governor to replace the current one.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nAs\u2019ad Al-Eidani won a seat in parliament during the election and aligned himself with pro-Iran factions. But he wants to keep hold of the powerful provincial position, especially if he is unable to gain a cabinet post.<\/p>\n

\nThe protesters had responded to Al-Eidani\u2019s call for support and tried to raid the provincial council building as local leaders met inside to decide on his replacement. Stones and Molotov cocktails were thrown and riot police responded with tear gas and live bullets, allowing the council members to leave with no vote having taken place.<\/p>\n

\nIt was the latest protest to hit Basra in 2018, where local and national level political tensions have spilled over into violence in the province. Basra remains desperately impoverished despite being the country\u2019s main oil-producing hub.<\/p>\n

\nThe two scenes in Baghdad and Basra encapsulated the tensions that engulfed\u00a0Iraq\u00a0in 2018 – a year in which there was a sea change in\u00a0Iraq\u2019s political dynamic that overspilled into violence on the streets of Basra. The main battle lines shifted from between the government and extremist militants feeding on disenfranchised Sunnis, to between two Shiite political factions, one\u00a0pro Iran and the other anti.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"
\nProtesters in Iraq this month showing their support for Muqtada Al-Sadr. The cleric solidified his position at the top of Iraqi politics in 2018. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nA fresh start<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nLittle more than a year ago, former Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi declared victory over Daesh after three years of battles against Iraqi security forces backed by the Shiite-dominated paramilitary troops and the US-led international military coalition.<\/p>\n

\nTerritories held by the militants in the north and west were liberated and the number of bombings in Baghdad and other provinces significantly declined. But what came next was a succession of political crises that exposed the vulnerabilities of\u00a0Iraq\u2019s political system.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe can certainly define 2018 as the year of political crisis,\u201d Abdulwahid Tuama, an Iraqi political analyst told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cAs soon as the war against Daesh came to an end by the end of 2017, the political crises began to follow one after the other.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nShiites, who bore the brunt of the war after tens of thousands volunteered to fight, have been acting as if they were \u201cthe actual winners.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThey filled a political vacuum left when Sunni forces melted and let down their constituents during the 2014 Daesh invasion and Kurds in the north were left weakened by a failed independence bid, Tuama said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nNew young forces emerged after 2014 under the command of Shiites to help win back Daesh-held areas – but this only served to set up the next power struggle.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe first sign of the post-Daesh period is the transformation of the nature of the political conflict in\u00a0Iraq\u00a0from a Shiite-Sunni conflict into a Shiite-Shiite conflict,\u201d Abbass Al-Yassiri, the head of the Baghdad-based Ishan Center for Political Studies told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cDefeating Daesh has redrawn the map of the national powers as Shiites have emerged as the biggest winners while Sunnis and Kurds withdrew into the shadows.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe fragmentation of the Sunni and Kurdish political forces have forced them to join the powerful Shiite forces to grant them room in the Iraqi political scene.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThe absence of political competition encouraged Shiite leaders to run separate lists for the parliamentary elections for the first time since 2005.<\/p>\n

\nThree main alliances were formed.<\/p>\n

\nSairoon, was sponsored by Sadr, whose followers once fought American forces in the country before he switched to opposing Iran.<\/p>\n

\nAl-Fattah was led by Hadi Al-Amiri, commander of Badr Organization, the most powerful Shiite armed faction, which is supported by Tehran.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nConfident of a second term, Al-Abadi, put together the Al-Nassir coalition.<\/p>\n

\nThe three coalitions reflected the military alliances created on the ground during the battle against Daesh. Emboldened by their role and military successes, the Iranian-backed forces came together under Amiri\u2019s Fattah list.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey (Shiite parties) wanted to know the area of influence each of them held, so they were not keen to run for elections in one big electoral coalition,\u201d a prominent Shiite leader told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey have been saying, that they want to ally with each other, but actually they do not.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey seek to weaken each other to make it easy to subject the loser to the laws of the winner.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nDemocratic progress or political apathy<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nThe 2018 electoral campaigns were the most expensive and bitter since the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein. Allegations of sex scandals and threats were used as tools to exclude some candidates and discredit their electoral lists.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAbadi and his candidates along with women were the most targeted.<\/p>\n

\nThe fourth parliamentary elections since the 2003 US-led invasion were held on May 12, with more than 7,000 candidates taking part. There were no security violations across the country on polling day, but the even bigger surprise was the lack of participation, especially in Shiite-areas. The turnout was 44 percent, the lowest since 2005.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"
\nIraqis voted in May in an election that was relatively peaceful but had a low turnout. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nThe results put Sairoon in first place, Fattah second and Nassir in third.<\/p>\n

\nAbadi, and his Islamic Dawaa Party, were the biggest losers and it was a bitter defeat for him to swallow. Abadi had restored a relative balance between the two main external powers vying for influence in\u00a0Iraq\u00a0– the US and Iran. He successfully invested funds provided by Washington and its allies into the Army and Counter Terrorism Service while also making use of Iranian support and funding for the armed Shiite factions, which represented the back bone of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) fighting Daesh.<\/p>\n

\nHis success in leading the country through one of its many dark periods and backing from the US still left him in the strongest position for prime minister.<\/p>\n

\nAmiri, on the other hand, emerged as a representative of the Iranian-backed forces.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe actual conflict was between the US and Iran not Abadi and Amiri,\u201d Tuama, said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIranians saw Abadi as the man of the US who they can\u2019t trust, so they had to clip his wings.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThe surprise was the big win for Sadr.<\/p>\n

\nAbadi launched an investigation into allegations of fraud, which found \u201clarge manipulations\u201d took place in favor of some lists and candidates. The special committee he set up recommended suspending members of the Independent High Electoral Commission and a manual re-count of votes.<\/p>\n

\nAt the same time tensions started to increase between Sadr and the Iran-backed faction Assaib Ahl Al-Haq.\u00a0As the winners and losers exchanged accusations of fraud and intimidation, a huge explosion hit an impoverished Shiite district of the capital on June 6, killing 32, and injuring scores more. All the victims were Sadrists. The investigation found the bomb had targeted a weapons store belonging to Sadr\u2019s Brigades of Peace.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"
\nA fire at a warehouse containing ballot boxes added to complications over a recount linked to electoral fraud. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nIn the private offices of many Shiite leaders, the fingers of blame pointed at Assaib Ahl Al-Haq.<\/p>\n

\nFive days later, a large fire broke out at a warehouse in east Baghdad, where the electoral commission had stored ballot boxes and electoral equipment. The blaze destroyed many votes, hindering the re-count in part of Baghdad, where most of the fraud allegations were made.<\/p>\n

\nAccusations of who started the blaze were again directed to Assaib Ahl Al-Haq.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cAll the Shiite leaders and their international backers (Iran and US) were worried and they had to decide either to cancel the election results or continue monitoring the skirmishes between Sadrists and Assaib and risk the outbreak of fighting at any moment,\u201d a prominent Shiite leader told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cChaos was the alternative in both cases, so going with the partial manual re-counting of votes, seemed a great deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIn the end, the manual re-count did not change the results.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nSummer of protest<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nAs soon as initial results were announced in June, the winners started frantic negotiations to form new alliances to reach a majority in the 329-seat parliament. The biggest\u00a0 alliance can nominate the prime minister and form a government.<\/p>\n

\nThe Shiite forces and their Sunni and Kurdish allies split into two camps, one led by Sadr and the other by Amiri. Although both managed to attract most of the parliamentary blocs, neither succeeded in collecting the necessary 166 seats.<\/p>\n

\nAs tensions between political rivals in Baghdad escalated, people in Basra suffered through temperatures of 50C with no mains electricity. The already widespread outages became worse when Iran stopped exporting power to\u00a0Iraq\u00a0because of new US financial sanctions.<\/p>\n

\nMass demonstrations took place in Basra in July against the outages and a break down in other basic services including clean water. The protests expanded to target the lack of jobs and high level of poverty.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nIraq\u2019s economy relies entirely on the revenues from Basra\u2019s oil. The province, which is home to dozens of local and international oil-related companies, puts out 3.5 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n

\nProtesters targeted local governmental buildings in the city center, and the oil fields nearby.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nSome Iranian-backed factions such as Assaib Ahl Al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah-Iraqannounced their support for the demonstrations, which spread to other parts of the province.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nMany tribes joined, and cut off roads leading to the oil sites and prevented the arrival of staff.<\/p>\n

\nBy the end of the second week of July, at least eight demonstrators had been killed and scores wounded, including security personnel.<\/p>\n

\nGovernment and political party buildings were set on fire, as the demonstrations spread to other Shiite provinces.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThere were multiple players trying to achieve different goals \u2026 the demonstrations were ridden by several Shiite political forces,\u201d Tuama, said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe strongest message that was sent was \u2026 the Iraqi oil sector is within the range of the Iran-backed Shiite factions.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAbadi sought to calm the demonstrators by offering to provide tens of thousands of jobs and release hundreds of millions of dollars to fund infrastructure projects in the southern provinces that had stalled since 2014 because of the sharp drop in oil prices and the costly war on Daesh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe demonstrations were suspended \u201cto give the government an opportunity to improve the basic services.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nRace to control parliament\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nThe Federal Court ratified the results of the elections on Aug. 19.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nNegotiations between the two sides, now known as Reform (led by Sadr) and Al-Binna (led by Amiri), made remarkable progress, to form the largest bloc and agree on government\u2019s program.<\/p>\n

\nThey also agreed to nominate the Shiite veteran politician and former vice president Adel\u00a0Abdul Mahdi\u00a0 as an independent candidate to be the prime minister, ending Abadi’s hopes of a second term.<\/p>\n

\nWithout warning, the negotiations collapsed and the two sides announced they would work separately to form a government. Sadr\u2019s arch foe, the former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, who many blame for staking sectarian tensions when he was in power, was accused of sabotaging the deal.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey were behaving like kids,\u201d an Al-Binna\u2019a negotiator told Arab News.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWhenever we agree to announce our alliance, Maliki appears in one of the television channels to say something that provokes Sadr, and the latter turns against us.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nFour months after the election, parliament had still not convened and Iraqis became increasingly frustrated that the politicians were again failing to tackle the long list of problems affecting their daily lives.<\/p>\n

\nThere had been no real reconstruction in areas liberated from Daesh in the north and west and more than 1.5 million displaced people were still living in tents.<\/p>\n

\nThe money released by Abadi had still not reached local governments, especially in Basra, where the terrible state of water had led to 140,000 cases of poisoning.<\/p>\n

\nDeadly protests erupted again in Basra, with government buildings and Shiite armed faction offices set ablaze. At least 10 protesters were killed.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"
\nThe Iranian consulate in Basra was set ablaze during protests in September, adding pressure to political parties to resolve post-election deadlock. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nOn Sept. 7 the Iranian consulate building in southern Basra was set on fire by protesters chanting against Iran and its interference in Iraqi affairs.<\/p>\n

\nThe chaotic protests had dangerously escalated under unclear leadership and attempts to hijack them. With a lost purpose and lack of direction, local leaders and the tribes decided to withdraw.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIt was clear that things were heading towards chaos, and that big players were directing the events\u00a0(in Basra),\u201d a federal Iraqi intelligence officer told Arab News. \u201cThe demonstrations were completely derailed.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe investigations we conducted later revealed that several regional and international players were behind what happened in Basra in those days. Even the demonstrators, some of whom were killed, were shot purposely by snipers.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nA new government<\/strong><\/p>\n

\nTo stop the escalation and under pressure from Shiite leaders and the US, Sadr and Amiri agreed to resume negotiations.<\/p>\n

\nThe two sides decided the only way forward was to join together under a single joint coalition.<\/p>\n

\nBy the end of September, they had agreed on a parliamentary speaker, a president and the prime minister.<\/p>\n

\nAdel Abdul Mahdi presented his cabinet in early October to parliament for a vote, but a dispute erupted over the nominations over eight of the 22 candidates, including the proposed ministers of defense and interior.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"
\nPrime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, seen here at a ceremony commemorating those killed fighting Daesh, has still not named his full cabinet. (AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\nFalih Al-Fayadh, the national security adviser, head of the national security apparatus, and the head of Popular Mobilization Units, is at the heart of the dispute. He is also, and one of Amiri\u2019s key allies<\/p>\n

\nSadr considers Fayadh a man of Iran, so he vetoed his candidature to be the interior minister.<\/p>\n

\nBinna\u2019a\u2019s leaders accuse Sadr of rejecting Fayadh because he turned against Abadi after the election. But even within Binaa there are many against his nomination.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cSadr rejects Fayadh because he is Iran\u2019s candidate,\u201d a Binna\u2019a negotiator told Arab News. \u201cIran wants to reward Fayadh for aborting Abadi\u2019s attempts to retain his position by giving him the interior ministry.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIran also wants to ensure one of its allies controls the ministry of interior as it is one of the most important keys to control the security in\u00a0Iraq.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIraq\u00a0goes into 2019 once again in a political deadlock. More than six months after the election, five ministries, including interior and defense are still unfilled and the new prime minister is under increasing pressure.<\/p>\n

\nPolitical uncertainty driven by external players like Iran and the US will continue to be a key feature, but hopefully for Iraqis, the country will edge away from violence and instability. Unfortunately, poverty, lack of electricity and clean water, and the unending corruption that drains the state coffers of one of the world\u2019s biggest oil producers, will continue to hold back an improvement in\u00a0Iraq\u2019s daily lives.<\/p>\n

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BAGHDAD: Thousands of followers of Muqtada Al-Sadr gathered on a recent Friday evening in Tahrir Square, central Baghdad, to show their support.\u00a0 They were there to praise the Shiite cleric, who has become a key power broker since May elections, for the way he has gone about selecting his preferred candidates for the ministries responsible…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":27351,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27350\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}