{"id":26942,"date":"2018-12-26T00:23:06","date_gmt":"2018-12-26T00:23:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=26942"},"modified":"2018-12-26T00:23:06","modified_gmt":"2018-12-26T00:23:06","slug":"assad-deploys-forces-to-north-of-manbij","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=26942","title":{"rendered":"Assad deploys forces to north of Manbij"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nANKARA: The deployment of Syrian President Bashar Assad\u2019s forces to the north of Syria\u2019s Manbij province on Tuesday, according to Turkish media reports, sparked a new debate about how regional powers, especially Turkey, would react to this abrupt attempt to fill the vacuum being left by the withdrawal of US forces.<\/p>\n

\nThe move by Assad forces in the Kurdish-held region is seen as complementing their deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a former US ally led by the Kurdish People\u2019s Protection Units (YPG).<\/p>\n

\nThe SDF and representatives of the Assad regime recently held a meeting to coordinate the move. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\nBefore the US withdrawal, American and Turkish forces were jointly conducting patrols in Manbij region and the June deal between Ankara and Washington presumed the withdrawal of the YPG militia from the region, but the deal was not fully implemented.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nSince Dec. 23, Turkey, along with Ankara-backed Syrian opposition forces, has amassed troops and sent reinforcements, including a commando unit, to the Manbij frontline in an attempt to encircle the area and avert Syrian regime troops from altering the status quo on the ground.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAccording to experts interviewed by Arab News, the YPG has been searching for a buffer since the US withdrawal and is expected to lean toward the Assad regime as a protective shield.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cHowever, reaching consensus with the regime bears with it some political and military costs to the YPG,\u201d said Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Syria studies at ORSAM, an Ankara-based think-tank.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIt will have to give up its maximalist federalism claims entirely, while its security shield should be integrated within the Syrian army at some point.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nOrhan said that any potential conflict between YPG and Turkey in Manbij would incur huge losses for the Syrian Kurdish militia, which currently controls about 25 percent of Syrian territory and approximately 65 percent of the border with Turkey.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe YPG is, therefore, focused on reaching a settlement with the regime,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, the presence of regime forces in Manbij would not prevent Turkey from launching a currently pending military offensive within the region because it will not eliminate Turkey\u2019s domestic security concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAnkara considers the YPG a Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe threat posed by the Iran-backed militia in Syria is another parameter to take into consideration while evaluating checks and balances in Manbij.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe Trump administration said it would ensure that Iranian-backed militias don\u2019t fill the power vacuum,\u201d Orhan said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIn the same vein, Moscow would prefer the presence of regime forces rather than the dominance of the Iranian militia.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAccording to Orhan, regime forces are now focusing all their military clout in the eastern bank of Euphrates river, while pledging to ease the situation in Syrian city of Idlib.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nYesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the Assad regime consented to Turkey\u2019s presence in Idlib as a military entity rather than an occupying force.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cCoordination between the YPG and the regime has existed since before the US announced the withdrawal of its forces from Syria,\u201d Navvar Saban, a military analyst at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, told Arab News.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey tried several times to re-open the negotiation channels. The clashes that broke out between them on different fronts were random acts and were not part of an organized campaign.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nSaban underlines that the regime forces were part of the Manbij military operation under the SDF.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThey decided to integrate some of their forces and dispatched them in the eastern and western sides of Al-Arimah village,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is obvious that they do not feel the need to cover their cooperation with the YPG any longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nAccording to Saban, it is likely to see even an bigger advance in Manbij area, but the regime said it would \u201cexercise restraint\u201d on the southern part of Manbij and intervene in the cities as an institution and not as a security force.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe regime is testing the reactions of regional players, Saban said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe Kurds are not capable of handling such an area alone without the Americans and that is why they needed the regime, but the Russians will not allow the regime to do anything that would provoke the Turks,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nFrom this point of view, Saban doesn\u2019t think that the regime would think twice about advancing in areas that Ankara deems important, such as Tal Abyad.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nThe consensus between Moscow and Ankara will be crucial for the region, according to experts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan told reporters on Tuesday that he may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the US withdrawal from Syria and to increase coordination. A date for the meeting has yet to be set. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu will also visit Russia over the same agenda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANKARA: The deployment of Syrian President Bashar Assad\u2019s forces to the north of Syria\u2019s Manbij province on Tuesday, according to Turkish media reports, sparked a new debate about how regional powers, especially Turkey, would react to this abrupt attempt to fill the vacuum being left by the withdrawal of US forces. The move by Assad…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":26943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26942\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26943"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}