{"id":26230,"date":"2018-12-20T05:23:56","date_gmt":"2018-12-20T05:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=26230"},"modified":"2018-12-20T05:23:56","modified_gmt":"2018-12-20T05:23:56","slug":"us-syria-pullout-will-have-wide-ramifications","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/?p=26230","title":{"rendered":"US Syria pullout will have wide ramifications"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nDUBAI: With US sanctions heaping further pain on Iran\u2019s deteriorating economy, 2018 has been widely viewed by political analysts as the year Tehran was tamed.<\/p>\n

\nSanctions enforced last month have left Iran\u2019s shipping, banking, oil, energy and shipbuilding industries floundering.<\/p>\n

\nIn the fallout, the Iranian rial has lost more than a quarter of its value against the dollar, sending\u00a0 the prices of food and other basic commodities soaring.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe US sanctions on Iran are intended, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared, to choke off funds that the regime uses to support its malign activities in the region,\u201d said Dr Albadr Al-Shateri, politics professor at the National Defense College in Abu Dhabi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe second purpose is to target Iranian elites who line their pockets at the expense of Iranians\u2019 welfare. Finally, the sanctions bring maximum pressure on the ruling regime to change its behavior.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nPompeo said that Iran\u2019s leaders must be \u201cmade to feel the painful consequences\u201d of their violence and corruption.<\/p>\n

\nAl-Shateri said: \u201cThe sanctions, despite their unilateral nature, have hurt Iran. Many companies that had planned to invest in Iran changed course, fearing US punitive sanctions.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe Iranian currency plunged, unemployment is high and inflation is soaring. The International Monetary Fund points to declining growth due to the sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\"\"Frustration at the declining economy has led to protests in Iran. \u201cThe policy \u2026 is clearly intended to clip Tehran\u2019s wings and undermine its legitimacy,\u201d said Al-Shateri.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe regime in Tehran will use the sanctions as a rallying cry against Washington. But despite demonstrations against Iran\u2019s government, a groundswell of support for regime change isn\u2019t materializing.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAl-Shateri cited two reasons for this: The regime\u2019s ability and willingness to suppress protests, and the Iranian people\u2019s despondence, reticence and fatigue, as evidenced by the dwindling number of demonstrators.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe question is what the future holds for Iran. Experts are divided on this issue,\u201d he said. \u201cSome see Iran weathering the storm, waiting out the Trump administration and hoping for a new one that will
cut a deal on issues
of mutual concern.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nIn August, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was summoned by parliamentarians to explain the economic situation \u2014 a first for an Iranian political leader. In the same month, French energy giant Total pulled out of a $4.8 billion oil project in the country.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cTehran\u2019s strategy is dubious in the long term, but it remains a masterful tactician. In the short and medium term, it will woo the Europeans to its cause,\u201d Al-Shateri said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIt will appeal to the international community to see the justice of its cause, since the world sees it as the aggrieved party, having abided by the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Iran nuclear deal).\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nIran will mobilize its population against the US and Israel by accusing them of plotting to overthrow the government
and conquer the country, Al-Shateri said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThere is always room to improve personal and social freedoms, and perhaps manipulate disposable income through financial instruments.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIran could also offer itself as a key to solving many regional conflicts, such as the Lebanese political stalemate. Moreover, the country has enough political clout to facilitate a political solution to Syria\u2019s civil strife. It has already begun using this instrument
by backing negotiations between its Houthi allies and the internationally recognized Yemeni government in Stockholm
last week.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nThe Iranian regime\u2019s collapse could have detrimental economic consequences at home, since many companies are owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and most banks are owned by the state.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cEconomic conditions in Iran have worsened, even following\u00a0 the mere announcement that sanctions would be reimposed,\u201d said Riad Kahwaji, founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis
in Dubai.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe saw the reaction in the Iranian market, where many Western and international companies pulled out, and we see constant demonstrations by people protesting over the worsening situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nConditions could have been worse had the US not chosen to make oil sanctions more gradual by exempting eight countries, Kahwaji said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThat was for the purpose of preventing a big reaction in oil prices, and to allow other oil exporters to make up for Iranian oil,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe can expect these economic conditions to worsen for Iran. We see more sanctions and more tightening on its activities, so things are becoming quite tough to finance its operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nIran\u2019s current strategy is based on waiting out the Trump administration, improving its resilience and adopting additional measures to withstand the pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cBut two years (until the next US presidential election) is a long time, and a lot is happening every week in the Middle East arena,\u201d Kahwaji said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWhat is happening in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon is tough, so we can only see the situation escalating. Any spark will ignite a major conflict.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\nAnalysts expect 2019 to be an even tougher year for Iran. \u201cWe now have a hawkish administration in Washington, after eight years of (former US President) Barack Obama and a carrot approach to Iran,\u201d said Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, former chairman of the Arab Council for the Social Sciences.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWe\u2019re probably now in for a period of a heavy-stick approach. The country didn\u2019t moderate its policies or its behavior during Obama\u2019s carrot approach, and it went to the furthest extent in its expansionist policy, from Iraq, Syria and Lebanon all the way to Yemen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nWith this new approach, Abdulla expects a rollback of Iran\u2019s regional influence, at least temporarily.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cInternally, with severe sanctions reimposed, the net impact will be a weaker Iran, which is good for the region\u2019s stability and for global stability,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cA weaker Iran is expected until the end of the Trump administration. And in this zero-sum game that we have in the region, a weaker Iran necessarily means stronger Arab Gulf states.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nBut \u201cwe are nowhere close\u201d to regime change, Abdulla said.<\/p>\n

\nRaghida Dergham, founder and executive chairman of the Beirut Institute, said that the Iran of tomorrow will be determined by the IRGC and its supporters, which would mean \u201cmore trouble to come\u201d and potential confrontations at whatever cost.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe reform of the regime means responding to the demands of the Trump administration, in particular that Iran should confine its great influence within its own borders,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe sanctions are definitely hurting the country economically. The harm isn\u2019t only in terms of trade relations with the world, but is also sowing the seeds of a possible implosion in Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DUBAI: With US sanctions heaping further pain on Iran\u2019s deteriorating economy, 2018 has been widely viewed by political analysts as the year Tehran was tamed. Sanctions enforced last month have left Iran\u2019s shipping, banking, oil, energy and shipbuilding industries floundering. In the fallout, the Iranian rial has lost more than a quarter of its value…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":26231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle_east_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qatar-news.org\/qatarnewsEn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}